As an eyewitness to events here in Kiev, I want to share observations and comments with other people. The Orange Revolution is a historic event with great consequences not only for Ukraine but for freedom and democracy in Belarus and Russia.

Tuesday, November 30, 2004

THREE MAPS SHOWING THE ELECTION RESULTS; THE PROPER RESULTS; AND THE ANTICIPATED RESULTS OF AN HONEST ELECTION

Below are three maps I have prepared.

The first one “The Fraud” is similar to the maps often shown in the news to support the idea of an East – West split in Ukraine. It shows the results by Oblast of the November 21st election. Orange represents Yushchenko and Blue represents Yanukovych.

The second map, “The Actual Results of the November 21st Election,” takes into consideration the 10% to 15% of the votes cast that were probably fraudulent or coerced. Keep in mind that the concentration of fraudulent activity might start out at around 5% in the far west and escalate up to 20% to 25% in the far east of Ukraine. The light orange represents oblasts that Yushchenko definitely won and the yellow represents oblasts that he probably won.

The third map, “The Results of a New, Honest Election,” takes into consideration all of the above and the SECOND CHANCE EFFECT. With all of the events of the past few weeks, and with the slight increase in the flow of information, I expect a large number of Yanukovych supporters to vote for Yushchenko.


IN MY OPINION, THE EAST WEST SPLIT OF UKRAINE IS A FICTION
Please the archives for November 30, 2004 to see the maps

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