As an eyewitness to events here in Kiev, I want to share observations and comments with other people. The Orange Revolution is a historic event with great consequences not only for Ukraine but for freedom and democracy in Belarus and Russia.

Thursday, December 09, 2004

IT’S NOT OVER ‘TILL ITS OVER

Don’t you believe for a minute that the crew that tried to steal the past election is just standing passively on the sidelines for the upcoming “revote.” Don’t believe that you have heard about every falsification that was accomplished. Already there is an investigation into alleged hacking of the Central Election Commission server. What other schemes are being hatched?

Please consider what is at stake here. There are the monetary stakes involving billions and billions of dollars. From outright criminal activity, to questionable privatizations, there are some very rich people with a lot to lose if Yushchenko wins. Then there are the geopolitical stakes. This pits the interests of the Russian ruling elite against that of the European Union and the United States.

Please consider that millions of people have died around the world in the past century for much less than what is at stake here.

My conclusion is that with stakes so high, no one can passively let events unfold as they will. Therefore, count on behind the scenes maneuvering aimed at stealing the upcoming election, just in a not so heavy handed a manner.

As a long shot, don’t count out a heavy handed move by the Russian government. A future empire reuniting the components of the old Soviet Empire is about to lose an unrecoverable window of opportunity. Besides, the Russian ruling elite doesn’t want the people, among others, of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia itself to get the idea that they too can shake the yoke of authoritarian/criminal-capitalist rule.

I’ll go out on a limb here. Looking into my crystal ball I see two possible futures in twenty-five years. In one, there is a new Russian Empire made up of many of its former Soviet Republics, including Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. In the other, there is an expanded European Union stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Which future is more likely, and more importantly, which future is better may be obvious, but we shall have to wait and see.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Raul, I agree with you completely. Absolutely, too much is at stake. Yuschenko could very well lose or be assasinated. I am not looking forward to the exit polls. It seems difficult for people to understand that in areas of Ukraine, deception is a necessary way of life. Some people have already pointed out that in ans. to exit polls, although they voted for Yuschenko, they said they voted for Yanukovych.
My prayers are with PORA who announced that they would be doing education programs in S. and E. Ukraine. And I hope that the announcements of starting a new radio/tv station in E. Ukraine will occur.
Thank you for posting on-line the letters that you have received. It helps counter some of the myths surrounding the pro-Yanukovych supporters.
I too, forsee in the future either the CES or the EU. In terms of what is best for Ukraine the CES - common economic space of Ukraine, Russia, Belorus and Kazakhstan is disastorous.(http://www2.pravda.com.ua/en/archive/2003/september/6/news/1.shtml) Unfortunately, manipulating for CES is Putin/Russia and it does not look as if the Russian people will be voting him out any time soon, reagardless of what he does to their rights or economy.
Someone had posted that quote that the price of democracy is eternal vigilance.

11:51 PM

 

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