As an eyewitness to events here in Kiev, I want to share observations and comments with other people. The Orange Revolution is a historic event with great consequences not only for Ukraine but for freedom and democracy in Belarus and Russia.

Friday, December 17, 2004

THE NEW MINUTEMEN OF THE ORANGE REVOLUTION

During the American Revolution, minutemen were militia who were highly mobile and able to assemble on a moments notice. In the less violent, yet no less important, Orange Revolution in Ukraine, a new modern version of the heroic minutemen of old has come to be.

In the relative quite of the past week, as public expressions of support for the Ukrainian opposition have mellowed, it would be easy to think that the public is losing interest. But enter many homes in Kiev and you will see, hanging by the door, some of the weapons of the Orange Revolution. Hats, scarves and other articles of clothing, either orange or having some orange color, stand at the ready. The minuteman’s most common weapon, a bit of orange ribbon or tape likewise stands ready. The special Fisherman’s Corps stands ready to assemble, fishing poles held high displaying all manner of flag and banner.

Yes. The protesters may have, for the most part, left the street. Yet they are standing by. Men, women and children, 99% of which had no plan to participate in a national movement to rescue the soul of Ukraine, all are standing by.

Did I mention their most important weapon? Their hearts! The collective heart of the nation and the individual heart of the individual protester, driven to stand, unarmed, against an overwhelming authoritarian regime. We now know that bullets were issued to the regime’s interior troops. A slaughter of the protesters was only barely averted. Yet they stood. They stood brave. They stood true.

I have no doubt that these few weeks will go down in history as one of Ukraine’s finest moments.

Thursday, December 09, 2004

IT’S NOT OVER ‘TILL ITS OVER

Don’t you believe for a minute that the crew that tried to steal the past election is just standing passively on the sidelines for the upcoming “revote.” Don’t believe that you have heard about every falsification that was accomplished. Already there is an investigation into alleged hacking of the Central Election Commission server. What other schemes are being hatched?

Please consider what is at stake here. There are the monetary stakes involving billions and billions of dollars. From outright criminal activity, to questionable privatizations, there are some very rich people with a lot to lose if Yushchenko wins. Then there are the geopolitical stakes. This pits the interests of the Russian ruling elite against that of the European Union and the United States.

Please consider that millions of people have died around the world in the past century for much less than what is at stake here.

My conclusion is that with stakes so high, no one can passively let events unfold as they will. Therefore, count on behind the scenes maneuvering aimed at stealing the upcoming election, just in a not so heavy handed a manner.

As a long shot, don’t count out a heavy handed move by the Russian government. A future empire reuniting the components of the old Soviet Empire is about to lose an unrecoverable window of opportunity. Besides, the Russian ruling elite doesn’t want the people, among others, of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia itself to get the idea that they too can shake the yoke of authoritarian/criminal-capitalist rule.

I’ll go out on a limb here. Looking into my crystal ball I see two possible futures in twenty-five years. In one, there is a new Russian Empire made up of many of its former Soviet Republics, including Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. In the other, there is an expanded European Union stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Which future is more likely, and more importantly, which future is better may be obvious, but we shall have to wait and see.

Wednesday, December 08, 2004


TENT CITY OF PROTESTERS EXTENDS FOR BLOCKS Posted by Hello

Tuesday, December 07, 2004

A LETTER FROM LUGANSK

Hi Raul:

I fully agree with the questions that help you to choose one of the candidates. But they cannot be answered satisfactorily in our country, where every politician thinks only about their own ass, excuse the expression, but it is so.

I have some information about Yanukovich and it proves his illegal actions. But I don't think that Yushchenko is an angel either. By the way, an interesting fact is that almost all clairvoyants say that Yushchenko will be elected as president but he will die soon thereafter. He will be a leader for about two or three months. This fact can't be proved by scientists, but there it is.

Another interesting fact is that all media (those who support Yanukovich and those of the opposition) say that Yanukovich was a manager of one of the factories in 1976, when he was 26. But at that time, in order to lead a state business he must have been a member of Communist Party. It was not possible to be a party member if you had been imprisoned before. So how could he have been a factory manager? This is an absurdity.

A third interesting fact is that Yushchenko says that there are about 500,000 people in Independence Square. This cannot be true. The square's area is about 20,000 square meters. Only five men can stand in one square meter. So, 20,000 x 5 = 100,000. Why did he lie to 70,000 people? I think it is to create an illusion of a larger crowd. Why?

Lastly, I don't know if you were informed about the following. Yulia Timoshenko, Yushchenko’s right hand, stated at the Independence Square that "All people, who are more than five years old, living in the east of Ukraine must be killed (Russian - "vyrezany") as they are stupid (Russian - "bydlo")". Is this democratic way? About 70,000 thousand people heard this phrase. I don't really think that the opposition respects us and our choice. I 'm assured of that fact, because all the Russian channels showed this meeting, but it wasn't translated on such channels as "channel 5" or "TRK" or "1+1" or "Era". Why didn't those channels cover this?

I forgot to answer one of your questions. I'm from Lugansk, Lugansk Region. Lugansk is shown as a gangster system by the opposition. This is not so. You can believe me. I am not a gangster :)).

Respecting You,

Andrew.

Monday, December 06, 2004

.....SUPPORT CONTINUES THROUGHOUT KIEV.....

Previously, I made a post regarding the evidence of visible support for either candidate. (Please see the archives for November 30, 2004.) Visible support for Yushchenko continues to run at about 1 in 6. Again, to my amazement, I have not seen any visible support for Yanukovich all day.

Protesters still block government buildings. The tent city on Khreshchatyk Street is thriving. Independence Square (Maidan Nezalezhnosti) is still occupied. The crowds have thinned since the weekend as usual. Almost the whole city has cycled through Maidan.

Although there might be 40,000 people during the daytime and more at night, this crowd is not made up of the same people from hour to hour. Like many people, I might only go down to Maidan for a few hours each day. When you arrive by metro, you will usually see as many people leaving the square as entering it. This constant cycling makes the size of the crowds misleading. That is also why the crowds can swell so quickly.

I figure that the three metro lines that cross in the center of Kiev (Київ, Kyiv, Kyyv) can deliver about 30,000 to 40,000 protesters per hour without breaking a sweat. The surrounding buses and trolleys can do likewise. By the way, this also points out a group of real heroes: The staff of the Kiev City Metro and the other transportation departments. They have kept key logistical arteries for the opposition open and efficient throughout this crisis.


orange revolution Posted by Hello

Sunday, December 05, 2004

A LETTER TO MY FRIEND IN DONBAS

Dear Crash:

It was a great pleasure to receive your letter.

First I’d like to make a few statements:

1) I have never been to the Donbas. All I know comes from what I have read.
2) For the sake of our discussions, I am willing to concede that I may have been misinformed by the opposition and the western press.
3) Although I feel I am relatively well informed regarding the current situation, I know I would be a fool to think I have a perfect understanding, as a result, I am trying to have an open mind.

Next, I would like to tell you how I judge the candidates. These are the questions that I use for my evaluation:

1) Will he be fair to all Ukrainians, whether they voted for him or not?
2) Will he increase personal freedoms and build a stronger democracy?
3) Will he wage war against organized crime and corruption?
4) Will he create an environment where business can thrive, benefiting the many, not just the few.
And, most importantly:
5)
When my daughter grows up, which candidate will have left a better Ukraine for her to grow up in?

By the way, I don’t believe that Yushchenko is necessarily the best man to be president, just the better of the two. To me it’s a choice of which road to take and where that road will lead you.

Also, you should know that I don’t like politicians in general. To get to the top you have to bend so many rules and make so many deals that no one is clean in politics. So I can only go for the better choice of what is offered.

FALSIFICATIONS:
I have friends here in Kiev who have experienced falsifications directly. This knowledge has influenced me. What about the one to three million falsifications in favor of Yanukovich? I have heard convincing information regarding this, but how am I to really know? There may be falsifications for Yushchenko, I understand they are minor, but how am I to really know? What I can say with confidence is that the elections here were conducted in a manner to embarrass all Ukrainians.

REVOTE versus NEW ELECTIONS
I think how you feel about this depends upon who you support.

Yushchenko supporters favor a REVOTE because they think they will win if there are no falsifications.
Yanukovich supporters favor NEW ELECTIONS with new candidates because they feel that they can field a stronger candidate and that they could use the extra time this option would provide.

SECRET BALLOT
You say that everybody can vote for their own candidates in secret. Unfortunately this was not the case. Many employees of large businesses and state agencies were given ballots that were already prepared with a vote for Yanukovich. They were then required to return the blank ballot from the polling station to their boss to prove that they had cast the prepared ballot.

WHY ARE PEOPLE AT MAIDAN?
This is one of the few topics about which I can report to you directly. I have first hand knowledge in this area, so I will share my experience with you, my friend, as honestly as I know how.

1) ENTERTAINMENT. Yes, there has been entertainment. And I am sure that some people come for that reason, but believe me, the entertainment is not good enough to keep people out in the cold day after day. None of my friends go for that reason, and I certainly do not.
2) FREE VODKA, FREE CLOTHES, FREE FOOD
There is no free vodka. Alcohol is forbidden inside the tent city.
Free clothes are available to the protesters sleeping overnight. They have been donated by the citizens of Kiev, I have seen this myself.
Free food is also available only to protesters sleeping there. This food is being donated by individual citizens. Everyone else buys their food at Maidan.
3) PEOPLE COME TO MAIDAN TO RELAX NOT TO SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION
I am sorry my friend, you are just plain wrong on this point.

TIMOSHENKO
I am sorry, I don’t know enough about her to make a comment.

CONCLUSION
I would like to return to my five questions that I used to evaluate which candidate will be better for Ukraine. I honestly believe that Yushchenko will lead Ukraine down the road toward a liberal, democratic Ukraine with a booming economy. I just as strongly believe that a Yanukovich presidency will mean a continuation of gangster capitalism, a strengthening of authoritarian rule, and an economy benefiting the few to the detriment of the many.

I can only make a choice based upon what I know. So, for the future of my daughter, I choose for her to grow up in the Ukraine that will be left by a Victor Yushchenko presidency.

Best wishes,
Raul


To read crash's letter click this link: http://raulkyyvpoetry.blogspot.com/

Saturday, December 04, 2004

THE SOUNDS OF SEASONAL CHANGE FILL THE AIR IN KIEV

The Winter Solstice falls on December 21st this year. Many government officials, in the spirit of the season, are well into their preparations. Walk past any government building in Kiev and you can hear the heart warming sounds of the season. Listen to the roar of office and industrial size shredders converting incriminating documents into festive packing material for Christmas presents. Hear that low hum coming from every floor? That is the sound of kindness. Officials, in anticipation of a Yushchenko victory, are all busy formatting and reformatting the hard drives of their computers. That way they hope that the new administration will have a fresh start for their work.

What about those suitcases and bundles being whisked to waiting jets at the airport? Surely they must hold presents for the little ones?


So much goodwill is in the air!

CELEBRATIONS, ORANGES, DRUGS, VALYANKY and a PORTABLE CHURCH

I have posted three new photographs:

Celebrating the Supreme Court Decision – was taken last night in Maidan (Independence Square)
Portable Church on Khreshchatyk Street – title is self explanatory.
Of Oranges, Drugs and Valyanky – requires some explaination.

Background:

The sign in the middle of the picture says:
Пункт обміну - американських валянків на наколоті апельсини
(Punkt obminu - amerykanskyh valyankiv na nakoloti apelsyny)
Exchange point – American valyanky for drugged oranges

The photo on the left of the poster is of Ludmilla Yanukovych, the wife of Victor Yanukovych. The word коза under her picture means goat.

The boot shaped object is a valyanky, a boot made of felt for the cold weather, well known in Russia and Ukraine. (But unknown in the US.)

Explanation:

This poster is making fun of Victor Yanukovych’s repeated reference to the protesters and Yushchenko as goats. Also, the poster pokes fun at Ludmilla Yanukovych who made a speech where she told the Yanukovych supporters that the oranges that the pro-Yushchenko supporters were carrying were filled with drugs and that the valyanky, that some protesters were using to keep their feet warm, were manufactured in the US.


You can access the photo album by clicking on the link in the sidebar.

Friday, December 03, 2004

ORANGE NOW TRULY DOES REIGN SUPREME

The Supreme Court has ruled:

Because the Central Election Commission did not examine the several cases that were lawfully before the courts of a lower jurisdiction at the time of its final decision,
and because the CEC, at its final meeting did not examine the originals of the protocols of the 226 Territorial Election Commissions, and did not provide access to these protocols to the official representatives of Yushchenko, the results announced by the CEC on November 24 are not legal.

The election on November 21 took place with countless violations of the election
law, and therefore it is impossible to determine the true will of the people.

Therefore, the Supreme Court has ordered a repetition of the second round of the
elections to be held in three weeks from December 5 (i.e. December 26.)

ORANGE NOW TRULY DOES REIGN SUPREME!!!

Mychailo Wynnyckyj
In an elated Kyiv, Ukraine

Ukraine's Supreme Court Rules

I was watching channel 5 here as they read the results.
They canceled the election results and called for a revote.
This is probably the best possible outcome to be expected from the court.

THE "END GAME" BEGINS - by Mychailo Wynnyckyj Ph.D.

In a possible testament to the fact that my previous reports from Kyiv, and myinterviews on both CBC and Radio Liberty have not been to someone's liking, this morning my home telephone line suddenly ceased to function for severalhours. My access to email has unfortunately become somewhat limited as aresult. I will of course continue to write, but the frequency of my reports may decrease.

Kyiv, Dec 2 - 8pm

The "end game" begins?

Today I spent a fair bit of time talking with a group of reporters who work for a well-known western newspaper. Last night they spent about 3 hours meetingwith an individual who is among the closest advisors of Leonid Kuchma, andtoday, they met with a very highly placed western diplomat. I have promised tokeep their sources confidential, but I can report that both sources claimed that the final negotiations concerning the methods by which power will be transferred from Kuchma to Yushchenko have commenced.

---This six page letter can be found in its entirety by clicking the link below:

http://raulkyyvpoetry.blogspot.com/

HE GOT A PUMPKIN

My wife tells me that there is a saying whose origin is in the villages of western Ukraine. She remembers her grandmothers using the expression.

Він отримав гарбуза.

(Vin otrymav harbuza) He got a pumkin.


It comes from an old Ukrainian tradition. When a man had brought a proposal of marriage to a woman, he would later return for an answer. If the answer was no, he would find a pumpkin. This is not a common expression and it is most often used regarding a proposal. Most people do, however ,understand that this expression means someone was told no or was turned down. The past gifts to Kuchma and Yanukovich of a pumpkin now make more sense to me. It is an interesting connection to the choice of orange by the opposition.

For me, as for many others I have spoken to, my reaction to and impression of the color orange has been forever changed. It will always represent the struggle for freedom to me.

BANKING CRISES

Remember the movie it’s a wonderful life?
It points out something that many people don’t understand. Your money is not in the bank. When you make a deposit, the bank turns around and lends that money to someone else. So, if everyone suddenly shows up to take out their money, the bank does not have the cash on hand to return their money.

The thing about a bank panic is that even a strong well capitalized bank can fall when faced with a “run on the bank.”

I first noticed signs of a panic about a month ago when the foreign exchange booths around town were mostly buying dollars and claiming that they had no dollars to sell. Banks have been offering 18% on Hryvna accounts and 12% on dollar accounts. This is about a 10 percentage point risk premium over normal rates. By the way, only domestic Ukrainian banks offered these rates, subs of foreign banks offer a fraction of these rates. That should warn you that something is wrong.

You know there’s a problem when you sell your dollars for Hryvni, the local currency, and then they tell the next person in line that they have no dollars.

One way to starve a panic is to build confidence. The central bank can push liquidity into the country and insure that all banks have enough currency on hand. Especially in whatever currency is on hand.

I have seen evidence of this prudent practice at the foreign bank subsidiary where I am lucky enough to bank. Its business as usual and you can withdraw cash as you like. However, I will say that when I visited my bank yesterday, they had three rows of chairs in the lobby, which they never had before; and, instead of the normal two or three customers, there was over thirty people there. A bank official said that this had never happened before.

I think that it is interesting that for the past month my withdrawals of dollars have resulted in new bills. I mean sequentially numbered; never been touched by the public; from cash bricks still wrapped in plastic; fresh from the US Treasury; new hundred dollar bills.

Unfortunately, at domestic Ukrainian Banks, there is a different situation. The central bank has placed limits on access to bank deposits. They claim that it is in response to a run on banks in eastern Ukraine caused by the announced intention of some eastern provinces to form an autonomous region. I believe that there is an additional force at work. Many people have said that Yushchenko supporters have been withdrawing their funds from banks controlled by the oligarch/gangster backers of Yanukovich. (If true, I think that this is an incredibly effective nonviolent action, although it may have unforeseen consequences.)

1) The Central bank has placed a $1,000 limit on foreign exchange (Read buying dollars or euros.) IF you can find someone that will sell.

2) Withdrawals are being limited to $300.
If you have a time deposit, you can’t close it early like normal. You have to wait for it to mature.

Good luck on trying a cash machine, they’ve been cleaned out.
On the black market, dollars have been selling for 8 to 10 Hryvna per dollar instead the normal 5.3.

Well, I hope that this banking situation doesn’t hurt anyone. Unfortunately, I believe that the banking situation is going to get worse.

Thursday, December 02, 2004

THE LINGUISTIC SPLIT OF UKRAINE IS A FANTASY

Many who have an agenda to turn Ukrainians against themselves would have you believe that there is deep chasm separating Ukrainian speakers from Russian speakers here. It is a shame that so many news organizations have bought into this lie. What’s a bigger shame are the Ukrainians who have bought into this ridiculous theory despite evidence in daily life to the contrary.

The news reporting has been so crazy that anyone not familiar with life here might think that there is stark language line running down the center of the country.

First let’s get some rough information out on the table (these are rough numbers):

1) About 1 out of 5 citizens of Ukrainian are ethnically Russian
2) About 4 out of 5 citizens of Ukrainian are ethnically Ukrainian
3) About 1 out of 3 children are taught in Russian at school.
4) About 2 out of 3 children are taught in Ukrainian at school.
5) The Russian and Ukrainian languages are mutually intelligible languages.
By this I mean that basic communication is possible.
6) 70 to 80% of Ukrainian citizens are fully or effectively bilingual.
7) Ethnic Russians and Ukrainians intermarry freely.
8) Ukrainians, regardless of language or ethnicity, are patriotic and love their country.

The Russian language has a very important place here in Ukraine. Not only due to the ethnic Russians, but because of the long association with the Soviet Union and with Russia. You might conclude from the information listed above that Ukrainian is used almost exclusively here. But it is not. If I were to take you for a long walk around Kiev you might be surprised. If we ate in restaurants, went shopping and listened in on conversations among the citizens of Kiev, you would hear Russian. Russian everywhere! Almost exclusively Russian!

And remember, Kiev voted about 75% in favor of Yushchenko. (85% if you eliminate the fraudulent ballots.)

When I go shopping, I use my limited Ukrainian. What is interesting about these conversations is that I will ask a question in Ukrainian and the person I am talking to will then answer me in Russian. We communicate just fine and there are smiles all around.

Ukrainians don’t segregate themselves on the basis of language. At any gathering that I attend I only see Ukrainians! Not Ukrainian speakers on one side of the room and Russian speakers on the other.

I know the Ukrainian people won’t let this fantasy get in the way of their building a great nation. I just wish the media would get this right.


Please check out the archives of November 30, 2004 to see three maps that show how the east west divide has been misrepresented in the media.

YANUKOVYCH SUPPORTERS ABANDON VOKZAL (Central Train Station)

Yanukovich supporters were not to be seen in front of Vokzal, Kiev's Central Train Station, this morning. This is in contrast to a few days ago when a sizable crowd assembled there and Yanukovich was able to hold a rally there. That rally had been notable due to the fact that the crowd was almost all male, whereas rallies for Yushchenko have been made up of men, women and children.

Local residents had been complaining of Yanukovich supporters sleeping in doorways and urinating in residential areas. These problems probably arose from the fact that much of the crowd had been shipped in from the east. Basically, they were dumped in Kiev with no support system and so many ended up taking shelter in the train station. Many had stated that they had each been paid or promised 150 to 200 hryvni, which is about $30 to $40, for coming to Kiev to support Yanukovich.

Support for Yushchenko was easily visible in the form of flags, ribbons, stickers, etc.


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Wednesday, December 01, 2004

KUCHMA ANNOUNCES COMPROMISE

At 7:25pm Kiev time President Kuchma held a press conference to announce a compromise reached at the round table discussions (more or less).

1) Reaffirmed no use of force.
2) Restablish the normal work of government agencies. (Stop blockade of buildings.)
3) Establish judicial working group.
4) Possibility of amendments to laws/constitution of Ukraine
5) All political forces to recognize the need to maintain the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
6) To conduct next session of round table after the results of Supreme court are known.

Nothing much. Mostly a photo op. Lasted about 10 minutes with no questions from reporters.
Yushchenko finally gave Yanukovich a very weak handshake and they both gave weak smiles for the cameras.

The comment re territorial integrity is very nice.

PROTESTERS MARCH ON VERHOVNA RADA (Parliament)

This morning at around 9am, opposition protesters began departing Independence Square (Maidan Nezalezhnosti). The early morning crowd had been enlarged, in part, by a speech last night in which protesters were warned not to get lazy and allow their numbers to diminish. The moving wall of people immediately brought traffic to a stand still as it proceeded down Khreshchatyk Street. On the way, I saw an old woman carrying a shopping bag and wearing a bit of orange ribbon, standing defiantly in front of a line of cars so that they wouldn’t hinder the crowd.

The crowd turned at the end of Khreshchatyk Street, and continued up Hrushevskogo Street. Looking backward, I could see that the tail of the procession was being added to continuously. The additional marchers came from Maidan as well as from a steady stream of people coming out of the Metro.

As we proceeded up Hrushevskogo, we passed by a large line of protesters assembled at the top of a long hill running parallel to the street. Among them were about thirty drummers using steel drums to beat out their encouragement to the crowd.

Finally, the march brought me to the Verhovna Rada Ukrayiny (Supreme Council of Ukraine or Parliament). Many people stopped, creating a huge crowd while many people split off in different directions. Most notable, beside the size of the crowd, was the line of fifty or so protesters forming a long line to separate the standing crowd from the moving crowd. They wore green camouflaged uniforms with orange armbands. They were big, friendly and effective. This was my first sighting of real opposition muscle, besides the security guards at the camp on Khreshchatyk Street.

The police on duty appeared unarmed. Many were chatting with the crowd and there wasn’t a lot of tension between the crowd and the police. A spectacular display was made by a group of about four hundred protesters who marched into the area from the opposite direction. They were wearing identical fluorescent orange construction hats and bright orange plastic ponchos.

The crowd received a great reward for braving the freezing weather. The Rada voted to sack the government of Yanukovych, thereby further weakening his bid for the Presidency of Ukraine. This also raises the possibility of another candidate stepping into his shoes in the event of a revote.

BARRACADES APPEAR IN THE STREETS OF KIEV

Please see "To the Barracades" in the Photo Album (the link is in the side bar). It is a photo of one of the three barricades in central Kiev that I saw this morning. The barricade in the photograph is along the route taken by the opposition protestors up Hrushevskogo Street on the way past the Verhovna Rada Ukrayiny (Supreme Council of Ukraine or Parliament.) Many of the protestors pictured here are from Ternopil Oblast in Western Ukraine, as well as from Kiev. Besides the “manned” barricades, some government buildings were being obstructed by buses. Also, the Rada was blocked by opposition supporters of Yushchenko which covered both sidewalks and the street with a density equal to the Metro at the peak of rush hour.