NO SUPPORT EVIDENT FOR YANUKOVYCH IN DARNYTSA AND OBOLON TODAY

As I was out and about today I tried an experiment. I counted how many people that I walked past where showing obvious support for either Yanukovich or Yushchenko. I was also in the center of Kiev, but I didn’t count in the center or on the metro because of the concentration of protesters. I didn’t count everyone, just people I could see clearly from head to foot.

The Darnytsia district, where I went to the children’s market to buy a present for my daughter, is located five metro stops from Maidan (about 5.5 kilometers). It is on the east side of the Dnieper River. There were Yushchenko posters or ribbons in evidence in almost every store window in the children’s market.

The Obolon district is located six metro stops north of the center (about 6 kilometers.) It is on the west side of the Dnieper River.

Here are my unscientific counts:

................................................Darnytsia.....Obolon

Total People................................232.............183
Yanukovich Supporters.................0.................0
Yushchenko Supporters..............33...............35

%.....................................................14%...........19%
Or about....................................1 in 6..........1 in 5

Did you notice anything about these results? I knew you would! Not a single person that was displaying any kind of support for Yanukovich. And by the way, after the first twenty people I started looking extra hard for Yanukovich supporters, after fifty I looked even harder.

Before I did this I would have guessed “1 in 10” to “1 in 15” for Yushchenko.
Maybe I’ll try this again later. I’d be interested if anyone else can try this and see what they come up with. Please post a comment or email me.

I don’t know how to conclude this post. I guess the numbers speak for themselves.

THREE MAPS SHOWING THE ELECTION RESULTS; THE PROPER RESULTS; AND THE ANTICIPATED RESULTS OF AN HONEST ELECTION

Below are three maps I have prepared.

The first one “The Fraud” is similar to the maps often shown in the news to support the idea of an East – West split in Ukraine. It shows the results by Oblast of the November 21st election. Orange represents Yushchenko and Blue represents Yanukovych.

The second map, “The Actual Results of the November 21st Election,” takes into consideration the 10% to 15% of the votes cast that were probably fraudulent or coerced. Keep in mind that the concentration of fraudulent activity might start out at around 5% in the far west and escalate up to 20% to 25% in the far east of Ukraine. The light orange represents oblasts that Yushchenko definitely won and the yellow represents oblasts that he probably won.

The third map, “The Results of a New, Honest Election,” takes into consideration all of the above and the SECOND CHANCE EFFECT. With all of the events of the past few weeks, and with the slight increase in the flow of information, I expect a large number of Yanukovych supporters to vote for Yushchenko.

IN MY OPINION, THE EAST WEST SPLIT OF UKRAINE IS A FICTION

Please the archives for November 30, 2004 to see the maps

THE FRAUD 

The Actual Results of the November 21st Election 

The Results of a New, Honest Election 

ON THE ROOF 

Funny Moments in the Orange Revolution

During the election night coverage by a state controlled television station the announcer was reading the news while a signer for the hearing impaired was signing in a window in the lower right corner of the screen. Later we found out that the signer had been communicating that the announcer was telling lies.

A Yanukovych supporter was being interviewed in Donetsk, the proposed new capital of an autonomous republic. She was angry, she was passionate, and she wanted the world to know that all of Donetsk supports Yanukovych. Behind her during the interview was a teenage boy holding an orange over her shoulder.

What time is it where you live? 

Newlyweds in Kiev 

Smiles, Smiles, SMILES!

Before this month, the ordinary public behavior of the average Ukrainian in public was:

Eyes slightly down and straight ahead.
Not much conversation in public, like on the Metro.
Very few smiles.
(Don’t get this wrong. In private, among family and friends, the Ukrainians are as warm and hospitable as you could hope to find.)

Now?
Kiev has undergone an incredible transformation. People will look you in the eye. And they smile. They smile like each of them has there own private sun shining down on them.
They smile, they smile, and they smile!

A few friends have commented on this phenomenon saying
“Things will never be the same.”

Camping out on Khreshchatyk 

Grocery Stores Open, Bread Missing

All of our local grocery stores remain open and well stocked. Using this as a gauge of how the supply system for Kiev is working, everything seems to be OK. My favorite bread loaf the baton can't be found. This is due more to strike activity at the factory I believe. Today, opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko's people announced that they are going to block transportation if immediate progress is not made in negotiations. Only fire, ambulance and food vehicles will be allowed through.

(On a side note, the Transportation Minister is apparently in the hospital.)

Like most Ukrainian families, we normally only have a few days worth of food in the house. Most people here make frequent trips to the various markets. We have been slowly building up a reserve of food over the past few weeks. I know it seemed foolish to do this a few weeks ago, but now I'm glad we did that. Also have taken steps in case banks and ATMs are out of service.
Etc, etc . . .

I hope that these plans will prove to be unnecessary.

Of Flags, Chants and Stickers

The most common flags seen on the street:

Tak! (Ukrainian for yes) on orange field
Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko’s campaign flag.
PORA (пора = it is time) Black writing on yellow field.
PORA is the National Mobilization and Informational Campaign,
A student organization.
Ukrainian Flag. Blue over Yellow.
Often with a home made slogan written in the Yellow field.
Home made flags of all sorts.

The most common chants by people at rallies, in the streets and in the Metro:

Yushchenko!
Nas bahato, I nas ne podolaty! (Нас багато, і нас не подолати!)
We are many, and we can’t be overcome!
Kuchmu het! (Кучму геть !)
(President) Kuchma out!

Most common stickers seen:

Tak!
Pora
Свободу не спинити!
Svobodu ne spynyty! Freedom is unstoppable!

Poetry at a Time Like This? Why Not!

DRUM

Hear the drum beat
Feel the rhythm
Driven by an idea
Whose time has come

Beating harder
Rhythm forceful
Driving dreams
Of what could be

Ignoring others
Sounding louder
Never stopping

Calling out those
Brave and
True

Join me drumming
‘Round the fire
‘Round the pyre
Our souls ignited

Weave your rhythm
In together
Change the future
Change the story

We are endless
We are glory
Loving life
Of our own making.

Why There Can't be a Revote.

I know that opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko is publicly pushing for a revote (perhaps on December 12th.) However, putting aside the logistical problems of organizing an effective program of monitoring, I don't see how this can happen.

Put yourself in the shoes of the Yanukovych camp. You know the last election was fraudulent. You put a lot of work in to it. If you aren't able to cheat, you know you will lose. So why would you go along with a plan that would further expose your fraud and legitimize your loss?

Outlying Districts of Kiev are Quite

Once you get away from the city center, things seem quite normal here in Kiev. The only thing that seems out of the ordinary is that about one out of ten people heading for the Metro are wearing some sort of orange ribbon or clothing as they head for Independence Square (Maidan Nezalezhnosti.)

Out in the Obolon District, home to 320,000, life goes on. The McDonalds is doing a brisk business; construction of new residential high rises continues; and businesses are open as usual.

It seems to me that the whole population is not being actively engaged in this process no matter which candidate you support. Standing on Maidan, it seems like the whole country is on the move. Away from city centers there is a different picture.